The New Year Brings New Threats: America at Risk of War
Who would attack us, how would they do it, and what would America look like if we lost?
The United States has long prided itself on military might, technological advancements, and geopolitical influence. However, recent reports and expert analyses even as late as this past December suggest that the country faces an elevated risk of war—one for which it is starkly unprepared, according to the Commission on the National Defense Strategy’s 2022 report released by RAND National Security Research Division. From cyber vulnerabilities to strained alliances and emerging global powers, the factors contributing to this risk are numerous.
In today’s article I will examine the reasons behind these warnings, potential adversaries, methods of attack, and the key players involved.
Why Is America at Risk?
America’s preparedness for war is being called into question due to a convergence of vulnerabilities that have emerged over time, culminating in key occurrences during the Biden administration. A crucial issue lies in the erosion of military readiness. Many of the U.S. military's vehicles, aircraft, and ships are aging, and despite efforts at modernization, delays in upgrading critical systems leave the armed forces less prepared for high-intensity conflicts. Compounding this challenge are recruitment struggles that have led to personnel shortages, while political gridlock and budgetary limitations further constrain investments in defense capabilities.
To say that military recruitment and sustained enlistments are always at low points during liberal cabinets would be an understatement during Biden’s reign. In fiscal year 2023, the Army, Navy, and Air Force all fell short of their recruitment goals. The Army, for instance, aimed to recruit 65,500 active-duty soldiers but secured only 50,181, achieving 76.6% of its target. Among the reasons for this lower crop yield were health concerns and educational deficits, both of which were key elements that conservatives noted were high on their list in voting for Trump this latest election.
Cyber vulnerabilities present another major concern, which rose sharply in the last few years as Biden’s focus did an about-face from spying on our enemies to spying on Americans. The U.S.’s reliance on digital infrastructure also makes us a prime target for cyberattacks.
Chinese state-sponsored hacking groups were particularly active in the last four years, with upticks in hacking activity in the latter of those years. In December 2024 Chinese hackers infiltrated the U.S. Treasury Department by exploiting a cloud service, accessing unclassified documents. Additionally, groups like APT40, believed to be directed by China's Ministry of State Security, have targeted networks to steal valuable data and exploit vulnerabilities. All this while Biden has boasted great relations with China. He even claimed on November 16, 2024, at a bilateral meeting in Lima, Peru, "I’ve learned to speak Chinese." That, along with claiming he imparted great relations with the Red State, if not completely false, are, at minimum, signs that his cabinet grew dangerously ignorant of the threat China poses to the US.
Iran has also intensified its cyber operations. In August 2024, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) warned that Iran-based cyber actors were enabling ransomware attacks on U.S. organizations. In fact, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has targeted U.S. presidential campaigns, employing sophisticated phishing methods to steal data.
When America loses its focus on foreign attacks, America is not alone. Our allies, too, become targets. Between 2000 and 2023, the European Repository of Cyber Incidents recorded a total of 2,506 politically motivated cyberattacks worldwide, perpetrated by 679 known actors or groups. China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea were responsible for a significant share of these incidents.
While these examples provide insight into the scale and origin of cyber threats, the dynamic and clandestine nature of cyber warfare means that many incidents may go undetected or unreported. Consequently, if the threats we know about are making us vulnerable in an increasingly competitive global economy, obtaining a precise account of risk may never be known.
With key sectors like energy, finance, and healthcare, potentially becoming paralyzed by sophisticated cyber operations, the rise of state-backed enemy hacking groups exacerbates this threat. The strain on geopolitical alliances also weakens the country’s defense posture. Long-standing partnerships, such as NATO, have faced internal tensions, while the rise of global powers like China and Russia introduces new flashpoints that test the strength of these alliances.
Even if the war in Ukraine had not already been a years-long hinging point for Biden’s reckless spending of wartime deficits, his latest moves to nod rocket launches inside Russian territory seems, at least, as an act motivated by an intent on escalation in the waning days of his presidency. As a result, we have seen domestic political polarization, social unrest, and declining trust in institutions which further erode America’s ability to present a unified front against external threats. While Trump promises to change that, he’s still got a lot a work ahead of him.
Who Might Attack America?
China represents one of the most significant potential adversaries. As it seeks dominance in the Indo-Pacific region, it may view conflict with the United States as a necessary step toward achieving this goal. A military confrontation over Taiwan, in particular, could escalate into a broader war, especially if the U.S. intervenes. An inciting incident such as American intervention may even be what China is hoping for.
Russia also poses a grave threat, viewing the United States as a primary obstacle to its ambitions in Eastern Europe and beyond. An escalation in Ukraine or a conflict involving NATO allies could easily draw the U.S. into a direct confrontation with Russia.
Iran, as a third probable front of a global war, has shared long-standing tensions over sanctions, regional influence, and nuclear ambitions. If they decided to default on anything from policy to financial obligations, proxy conflicts in the Middle East or direct attacks on U.S. interests in the region could escalate quickly. Beyond state actors, non-state entities such as ISIS and al-Qaeda, thousands of which are already suspected to have infiltrated the US through the southern border in recent years, remain persistent threats, particularly as they exploit vulnerabilities in larger cities
How Could an Attack Happen?
The nature of modern warfare presents multiple avenues through which an attack on America could occur. Cyber warfare looms as one of the most significant threats, with large-scale attacks targeting critical infrastructure, such as power grids, financial systems, and communication networks - all sectors which the FBI has issues warnings about as recently as the last six months. The resulting chaos would severely weaken America’s ability to respond to conventional threats.
Is a ground war likely? This is the subject of tomorrow’s article. Subscribe to hear my thoughts on the causes, likelihood, and possible fallout of a military invasion on US soil, and what it might mean for our allies.
Economic warfare is another possibility, where nations like China or Russia exploit America’s dependence on global supply chains by disrupting trade routes or imposing economic blockades.
Traditional military confrontations are also a risk, especially in regions like Taiwan, the South China Sea, or Eastern Europe. Any of these locations could become turning points which could threaten to escalate into full-scale conflicts that stretch U.S. military capabilities thin.
Hybrid warfare, too, which combines cyberattacks, misinformation campaigns, and limited kinetic engagements, poses a unique challenge as it destabilizes the U.S. without triggering a traditional war. During such an attack, terrorist organizations could exploit domestic vulnerabilities to launch subversive or pre-planned responses to our communications or information sharing networks, further dividing the nation and straining resources.
Key Players Involved
China and Russia are at the forefront of potential adversaries, with both nations having significantly modernized their militaries. Their advancements in cyber capabilities, hypersonic missiles, and space-based weaponry position them as formidable threats. However, the role of allies and partners cannot be overlooked.
The U.S. heavily relies on alliances with NATO, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, but strained relationships and differing priorities within these partnerships could limit their effectiveness.
The private sector also plays a critical role, as America’s reliance on private companies for critical infrastructure and technology creates potential vulnerabilities. Cooperation between the government and private sector is essential but remains underdeveloped in many areas. In the fog of war, rogue groups and terrorist organizations could further exploit the chaos of a major conflict to pursue their own agendas.
A Total Loss: What Could It Look Like for America?
So, what’s the worst case scenario?
The consequences of a total loss in a major conflict would fundamentally reshape the United States in ways that are both devastating and far-reaching. Economically, the country could face collapse as prolonged war devastates industries reliant on stable international markets. Cyberattacks on financial systems or disruptions to global trade routes would paralyze commerce, leading to skyrocketing unemployment and widespread financial hardship. Industries such as technology and manufacturing, which depend on global supply chains, could collapse, leaving the economy in shambles.
Infrastructure failures would compound these problems. Cyberattacks or kinetic strikes on power grids, water systems, and transportation networks could leave millions of Americans without essential services. Urban centers would descend into chaos, with widespread outages causing food shortages, healthcare crises, and public unrest.
The military, too, could face catastrophic defeat if forced to engage in simultaneous conflicts against powerful adversaries like China and Russia. Losses in the Indo-Pacific or Europe would signal a dramatic shift in global power dynamics, forcing the U.S. to withdraw from key regions and diminishing its influence on global market share.
At home, the erosion we’ve already seen of our civil liberties could continue or even accelerate. The need for heightened security measures in the face of persistent threats may lead to the complete suspension of the Bill of Rights, including due process, the Second Amendment, and several other crucial liberties which define the very shape of our daily freedoms. In other words, domestic conflict could play an active role in creating an authoritarian state.
Social divisions exacerbated by war and economic hardship could deepen, leading to widespread confusion and a loss of national identity. Internationally, a military defeat would undermine America’s credibility, isolating us on the world stage as former allies pivot toward rising the newly risen global powers.
The cultural and social fabric of the nation would also suffer. Prolonged war and economic instability would strain communities, leading to a breakdown in social cohesion. Widespread disillusionment could leave fellow Americans questioning the values that once united us. These cascading effects would leave the country in a weakened and vulnerable state, unable to recover our former standing.
Will it happen like this? I certainly hope not. But seeing a near complete decline in this past administration’s focus on our national security and global policy has certainly threatened to draw us in as rival nations have undoubtedly taken notice.
The Cost of Complacency
If history has taught us anything about the world’s greatest empires, it’s that America’s position as a global superpower is not guaranteed. The potential for conflict with China, Russia, or other adversaries is real and growing. While the U.S. still possesses significant advantages in technology, innovation, and alliances, complacency and internal divisions threaten its ability to respond effectively.
A total loss in such a conflict would fundamentally reshape the nation. The economic collapse, infrastructure failures, military defeats, and social upheaval I’ve described here are not merely hypothetical—they are plausible outcomes if America remains unprepared. To avoid such a catastrophic future, the U.S. must prioritize rebuilding its military readiness, strengthening alliances, and addressing vulnerabilities in its digital and physical infrastructure.
The stakes are high, and the risks are real. The question is not if America will face an upcoming threat - we already are. The question is whether America will rise to the challenge or succumb to the forces threatening our place in the world. The answer may determine the course of the 21st century.